Done Deal

The deal with the outsource is now complete. Last week the contract was reviewed and the project team agreed to go forward. Transition is expected to be finished with 2-4 months. A lot of rumours swirling around but expect to have move news this week. I expect to speak with our personnel soon regarding my future in the company. I feel no dread except the usual anxiety about the future. I just looked at my savings and stock portfolio and it's not too bad despite some losses due to the market down trend. I sometime feel that my luck would hold and that I would be maintained by the company for at least 3 years. I think that is a good time frame especially with the kids going to junior college. I think that period is enough to sustain us until the kids reach their national service.

Looking at the basic situation, I have a bias in saying that I will be maintained for a few years at least until the situation improves. Some possibilities are 1.) being transferred to another country like Thailand or China, or 2.) working for the boss-man's company for the replacement project. These 2 possibilities are the based on a positive bias in my thinking considering my years of service plus to value of my experience that I can provide. But these probability may not come to pass considering the so called 'Black Swan' which has not entered into my calculations. But after listening to the audio book 'The World is Flat' by Thomas Freadman, my optimism has vanished and my positive bias has turned into a negative bias. But the book has offered some hope in terms of the new role that can be assumed with the new world order. So another possibility is: 3.) to work with the outsource agent.

These 3 alternatives allows me to have a stable job for the short term until a more long term situation can be determined. These 3 alternatives do not entitle me to receive a separation pay as I will continue to work on the job. A fourth alternative is 4.) receive the separation pay and look for another job. Having cash give a good feeling and allows me to look for another job. With the current economy that can take from 3-8 months of looking for another job. Hopefully, if the new job is good, I can last out to at least 3 years which will help take care of my kids junior college. This alternative may require the most change as it will entail adapting to a new company. Looking for work will also be another challenge.

The worse case scenario maybe to 5.) leave with out the separation pay and look for another job. These are the possible scenarios that can happen. After reading Freadman's book, it is now easier to understand the forces that are changing the company I work in. All these scenarios are affecting as I still have to work on my projects and have them delivered. I am also trying to earn extra money whatever happens by learning more about options and stock investing and writing a book. Hopefully, these activities will help me earn some money in my spare time. But I spend too much time reading and watching movies which is just a distraction.

March Review

Seems that the offer from the outsource was a bit high and negotiations have begun to bring down the quote to a more reasonable level. So the project may be a bit delayed. But some news of the proposal have filtered out. Particularly that some support centers maybe created in Thailand, China and the Philippines. So will be good if we will get an offer to move to one of these places. An interesting item is that aside from being paid a separation package, an incentive maybe offered to work for the outsourcer. It seems to be a good deal if topped up with a transfer - on expatriate terms - to one of these countries.

I have been going to the gym these past weeks and I finds it has made me more optimistic and less susceptible to stress and anxiety considering the outsourcing experiment. I was in Manila last week meeting with my developers so I did not exercise. But travelling by public transportation for about 2 hours every day is enough exercise especially for the nerves. I treated the developers with lunch as the project successfully has gone live. This week and the coming ones will the first ones where the Thailand users will be using the new package. So far it has been going well although the batch process is taking some time to complete. I have activated the process yesterday morning but the calculation is still ongoing as of this writing. But my spirits is good and expect no problem.

I attended a 2 day training course starting last Monday about assertiveness and conflict management. An interesting course but not intellectually stimulating. I found myself getting bored a few times but it was enjoyable. We had good sessions role-playing and having games. Met a few interesting people with the course facilitated by a lady from Portugal. The seminar was in the main shopping district in a mall that I particularly like because of the art and curio shops filled with religious items particularly Buddha figures from Tibet, contemporary paintings from China, old Mao statues from the cultural revolution, exotic Chinese lamps and furniture. It also has a good bookshop whith excellent books on Asia. An interesting place to walk around during lunch time. I went to the gym after the seminar.

Last night I attended my monthly Toastmaster meeting. I did my Advance Project 4. I have been a member for nearly 2 years and I enjoy it. It gives me a sense of accomplishment aside from keeping me fresh. I hope to finish a few more project before moving to my new job or place. Although it is still too early, I feel that change is coming. Of course it is and I will be a fool if I think that I would not be affected that somehow I will be spared the ax but it is really wishful thinking. So that is why I feel that I should attend all the trainings that I can and increase my experiences to prepare myself for the new.

Fooled by Randomness

I am reading a book by Nicolas Taleb called 'Fooled by Randomness'. An interesting book which seems to imply the success we may have is NOT due to our skills but actually due to our luck. Everything is random and the media only highlights the success stories rather than the more numerous failures. So applying to my condition would seem to indicate that I am actually overestimating my skills and abilities. I guess this should all the more drive you to improve or increase your skills. To sharpen the saw or to increase one's capacity so to speak. An interesting book that keeps you thinking.

One of the main theme of the book is to place value on introspection. This allows you to shift the noise from the really valuable message or signal. The author is a trader so he knows what he speaks and he generally give some interesting stories on the stock market. A good book to read and companion to George Soros books. Both authors are highly educated and inclined towards philosophy. Both writers I think wanted to be a philosopher but ended up being successful traders.

Applying to my situation, it would seem that my sometime misfortunes at work with the boss man is not really due to my inadequate abilities. But more on my luck. So I have just reached a bad phase in my life which was due to come anyway due perhaps to 'law of averages'. Nevertheless, these outcomes help us become more humble and show us our shortcomings or our fallibility. So one should just move forward and not think about one's failures as it is not really a failure but of poor luck as specific circumstances arose (whether political in nature) which resulted in the unfortunate outcome for me.

This maybe more a problem of cognition where we make errors of thinking. Perhaps in induction as described in the book. The present day with the explosion in information, noise prevents us from learning the true lesson. Perhaps tools like visual thinking helps us shift through the noise. I attach a map on investing which summarizes my (meager) understanding so far on the market.

Stock and Options Investing

I have been exploring other alternatives of earning money. After reading books that advise on earning separate streams of income, I have chosen on investing in the market as another way to earn money. With the recent re-structuring at the office, I think this is a good move. I guess this is the predicament faced by everyone all over the world with the trend on outsourcing and globalization. So I have invested in the local stock market: modestly buying unit trusts, REITs (or Real Estate Investment Trusts), ETFs (or Exchange Traded Funds) and directly buying specific stocks following fundamental and technical analysis but following the principles of value investing. I followed the view expressed by people like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet. I have also practiced diversification and possess a modest portfolio with investments in country funds (Malaysia, Japan, Singapore and Philippines) as well as stocks in China (corn) and shipping companies, as well as infrastructure investment trusts and food companies.

The recent volatility in the stock market have affected me but overall I am not in bad shape. I think the key is to have a long term view. Recently, I have begun to explore and study other instruments of investments such as currency and options although I have not taken the plunge. I hope to increase my financial literacy by exploring other alternatives although I have to be careful having lost some money many years back in currency trading. So I have begun to read books by people like George Soros and Nicolas Taleb who are both engaged in financial trading and investments. I also read books about well-known traders (as against investors) who have made money speculating in the stock market. The better books are of course by Soros and Taleb who provide a philosophical framework with regards to investing to prevent risky decisions. A good start before undertaking riskier ventures which may cause you to lose money.

So I am now studying other profitable but riskier ventures after attending an introductory seminar on options last Saturday. The speaker was very good with a PhD in Finance and writes good articles. He runs a well-regarded seminar locally and seems to know his stuff. He paints a picture that investing in options is not difficult and people can earn money very easily. I resisted to attend his rather expensive course and prefer to educate myself on my free time by reading books, researching the Internet and practicing in websites that offer free tools to invest. So I would rather embark on a self learning phase to be a knowledgeable investor and read books by Soros, Taleb and others are a welcome companion in this journey.

Life in the office has proceeded but with a sword over our head as we await the Best and Final Offer (BAFO) from the outsource. The recent rumor is that we will be paid our package, plus a job offer from the outsource agent to work with them with a joining bonus. This sound too good to be true. After serving more than decade with the company, this is a good offer for me. Although I also like the prospect of being transferred to another country hopefully, China but the recent news is that the option to transfer no longer exists and only alternative left is to work for the outsource or get the money and look for another job in another company. So the coming change is imminent and one should be prepared for it. So I am widening my knowledge base by increasing my financial literacy in case a job opens in the financial sector - actually one of the growth areas around here.

Preparing for change is really something difficult but I have accepted the challenge by enrolling myself in all sorts of lessons. I have joined a gym club last month and have been exercising to keep my self strong and fit for the coming changes. I have joined a yoga class yesterday and engaged a personal trainer for 10 lessons. Working out in the hi-tech and popular gym is a new experience for me. Likewise I have also started guitar lessons every Sunday morning and a good way to keep me mentally fit. So at 44 year of age, I am re-inventing myself to adjust to the changes brought about by so-called forces unleashed by globalization, outsourcing and what have you..

Co-Sourcing Endgame

The Indian company that was chosen to be our co-sourcing partner will give their best and final offer (BAFO) soon. A lot of the people in the department are mulling the various options that may be available to them. Yesterday at lunch, our supervisor said that an option maybe to be paid a retrenchment package plus a job offer from the Indian company. This looks like a win-win option becuase we get paid plus have a new job. We just don't know how long we will last in the Indian company if we choose to work for them.

I guess this is the reality that we should be looking at: where information technology is no longer a core business function of manufacturers. An activity best outsourced possibly to an Indian company. I have been reading about this situation in books like 'Wikinomics' or 'The World is Flat' but it is really a different situation when faced in real life. I guess everything is random following the ideas explained in the 'The Black Swan'. But at the end of the day, not really random as this is a business reality that has already been ocurring in the recent years all over the world.

For my case, there are some 'rumors' that I may be moved to another country. Not a good option as I may leave my family to work abroad as my kids are taking their pre-college courses. But it is a good option in terms of career prospect. This is an option that I am seriously looking at if it is offered. Nevertheless, my horoscope for the 'Year of the Rat' portends of change in career or location this year and generally good for me. So even the stars have aligned to depict my fate in 2008. Whatever the outcome, change is afoot. I have joined a health club near the office and exercising nearly everyday. Not only does it keep me physically fit but prepares me mentally for the coming challenges.

Since the start of January I have been attending guitar lessons. I want to keep my mind in tip top shape by learning new things. I have read somewhere that musician's brains have strong physical connections between the left and right hemispheres as compared to other professions. So I hope to improve my brain 'biologically' (?) by learning music skills. Anyway, all these activities like working out in a gym and guitar lessons help to keep my spirits up instead of descending into despair, worry and anxiety due to the circumstances in the office .

Ides of March

The dust has finally settled with my debacle with the boss man. I am out. Well not really as I am still helping in the operational side. But it's all for the best. My detractors have been taken out of the project and a new team is in place. I am now helping the new team though in a diminished role. Good for me as I can focus on the projects within my domain. But as I am still involved by a thread so to speak and I can still be called to help out in the project if things do not turn out well. In summary, the result after the dust has settled: my detractors are out, I am still in though barely and I can focus on my 'real' projects. More importantly, I am not held fully responsible for the issues (although I should be) as there is now a recognition I believe that internal politics was the real cause of the debacle.

But despite the final settling of accounts, a larger concern looms in the horizon. The company has finally moved forward toward 'co-sourcing' our jobs. Well, not exactly, as more like a relocation towards the countries were business resides in. The role of a regional head office, away from business is not realistic. So the likely options are: transfer to China or Thailand, move to another department, get absorbed by the outsource company (based in India) or leave the company with a (hopefully) generous package while looking for a new job. Our fate will be known by end-March when personnel will meet each of us to discuss the future. So the end of life as we know it for the past 6 years is likely to end soon. Possible by the end of 2008 as the final cogs are put into place.

I have a feeling that it's time to move on. I have spent a lot of time already in the office and recent events like the debacle with the boss man has tired me out. It has removed whatever excitement and foolish naivete that I still had. In fact, even my horoscope seems to portend my future. The prediction for the year of the rat for my specific birth year tells of a change of house and /or change of job. There is a prediction of big changes. In some cases, it predicts a change for the good. But let us see and wait for the play. Some accounts have said to wait patiently and see how the event reveal themselves. Very well. We will know soon. In the meantime, I have been trying to 'sharpen the saw' following S.Covey's works. I just read his latest book, 'The 8th Habit' and it is a good road map for the future. S.Covey works like 'The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People' have been helpful to me in certain periods of my life. Now my future seems to be proceeding like in the past.

Re-framing Past Experiences

Past obstacles and failures need to be re-assessed to get a healthy perspective of the past. Most of the time, past failures result in depression and the blues. But after looking back at the events with a more detached and experienced eye, I think the real lessons can be learned. Most projects end with a lessons learned session but this can still be too close to the actual events which make a more objective assessment difficult.

I previously was engaged in a difficult project about 4 years ago where an application was developed in a rapid and pressurized environment. I had a do the specification in a piece by piece fashion which was not the norm in our organization. Traditionally, the complete functional specification are made following a structured water-fall methodology. But the circumstances did not allow for this type of slow, structured process. So we went a head and did the project and we were heavily criticized. My assessment was not good and I suffered a bit from this experience although the application was delivered though a bit delayed.

In fact, the type of methodology is now called agile development where iterative processes are advocated instead of slow and traditional structured method. So we went through the project following an agile method following our intuition and self-organizing ourselves in this fashion to respond to the environment. Hence, we can say that we were following the methodology of the future though we and the organization did not realize at that point in time. It was a messy project but the team in fact, re-engineered an old application developed in an obsolete language and moved it into a web-based, intranet application.

I think this illustrates the importance of re-framing past experiences especially so-called failures because new developments and experiences will help us assess what really happened by using one's present knowledge and ability. Outsourcing the boss man's data warehouse as another example, is a world wide trend to foster global collaboration with external suppliers. Previously, I had thought that it was a personal failure in my part. Of course, as project manager I do share the blame but I have recovered by moving the development from the in-house team towards a more experienced and skilled outsourcing company. It was really the wave of the future experienced close hand.

Re-framing past experiencing may seem like the usual spin to improve one's reputation but, then again, one is entitled to one's viewpoint. We all have a right to express what we feel like the true course of events -> our own spin so to speak. But the pain and suffering has already occurred and this exercise is more like a recovery operation where one takes time to understand the past events and move forward with a better understanding of the past and make us a better person that is able to handle future assignments. Reading the latest literature like 'Wikinomics' also helps in understanding the future to know more of the past.