Fooled by Randomness

I am reading a book by Nicolas Taleb called 'Fooled by Randomness'. An interesting book which seems to imply the success we may have is NOT due to our skills but actually due to our luck. Everything is random and the media only highlights the success stories rather than the more numerous failures. So applying to my condition would seem to indicate that I am actually overestimating my skills and abilities. I guess this should all the more drive you to improve or increase your skills. To sharpen the saw or to increase one's capacity so to speak. An interesting book that keeps you thinking.

One of the main theme of the book is to place value on introspection. This allows you to shift the noise from the really valuable message or signal. The author is a trader so he knows what he speaks and he generally give some interesting stories on the stock market. A good book to read and companion to George Soros books. Both authors are highly educated and inclined towards philosophy. Both writers I think wanted to be a philosopher but ended up being successful traders.

Applying to my situation, it would seem that my sometime misfortunes at work with the boss man is not really due to my inadequate abilities. But more on my luck. So I have just reached a bad phase in my life which was due to come anyway due perhaps to 'law of averages'. Nevertheless, these outcomes help us become more humble and show us our shortcomings or our fallibility. So one should just move forward and not think about one's failures as it is not really a failure but of poor luck as specific circumstances arose (whether political in nature) which resulted in the unfortunate outcome for me.

This maybe more a problem of cognition where we make errors of thinking. Perhaps in induction as described in the book. The present day with the explosion in information, noise prevents us from learning the true lesson. Perhaps tools like visual thinking helps us shift through the noise. I attach a map on investing which summarizes my (meager) understanding so far on the market.

Stock and Options Investing

I have been exploring other alternatives of earning money. After reading books that advise on earning separate streams of income, I have chosen on investing in the market as another way to earn money. With the recent re-structuring at the office, I think this is a good move. I guess this is the predicament faced by everyone all over the world with the trend on outsourcing and globalization. So I have invested in the local stock market: modestly buying unit trusts, REITs (or Real Estate Investment Trusts), ETFs (or Exchange Traded Funds) and directly buying specific stocks following fundamental and technical analysis but following the principles of value investing. I followed the view expressed by people like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet. I have also practiced diversification and possess a modest portfolio with investments in country funds (Malaysia, Japan, Singapore and Philippines) as well as stocks in China (corn) and shipping companies, as well as infrastructure investment trusts and food companies.

The recent volatility in the stock market have affected me but overall I am not in bad shape. I think the key is to have a long term view. Recently, I have begun to explore and study other instruments of investments such as currency and options although I have not taken the plunge. I hope to increase my financial literacy by exploring other alternatives although I have to be careful having lost some money many years back in currency trading. So I have begun to read books by people like George Soros and Nicolas Taleb who are both engaged in financial trading and investments. I also read books about well-known traders (as against investors) who have made money speculating in the stock market. The better books are of course by Soros and Taleb who provide a philosophical framework with regards to investing to prevent risky decisions. A good start before undertaking riskier ventures which may cause you to lose money.

So I am now studying other profitable but riskier ventures after attending an introductory seminar on options last Saturday. The speaker was very good with a PhD in Finance and writes good articles. He runs a well-regarded seminar locally and seems to know his stuff. He paints a picture that investing in options is not difficult and people can earn money very easily. I resisted to attend his rather expensive course and prefer to educate myself on my free time by reading books, researching the Internet and practicing in websites that offer free tools to invest. So I would rather embark on a self learning phase to be a knowledgeable investor and read books by Soros, Taleb and others are a welcome companion in this journey.

Life in the office has proceeded but with a sword over our head as we await the Best and Final Offer (BAFO) from the outsource. The recent rumor is that we will be paid our package, plus a job offer from the outsource agent to work with them with a joining bonus. This sound too good to be true. After serving more than decade with the company, this is a good offer for me. Although I also like the prospect of being transferred to another country hopefully, China but the recent news is that the option to transfer no longer exists and only alternative left is to work for the outsource or get the money and look for another job in another company. So the coming change is imminent and one should be prepared for it. So I am widening my knowledge base by increasing my financial literacy in case a job opens in the financial sector - actually one of the growth areas around here.

Preparing for change is really something difficult but I have accepted the challenge by enrolling myself in all sorts of lessons. I have joined a gym club last month and have been exercising to keep my self strong and fit for the coming changes. I have joined a yoga class yesterday and engaged a personal trainer for 10 lessons. Working out in the hi-tech and popular gym is a new experience for me. Likewise I have also started guitar lessons every Sunday morning and a good way to keep me mentally fit. So at 44 year of age, I am re-inventing myself to adjust to the changes brought about by so-called forces unleashed by globalization, outsourcing and what have you..

Co-Sourcing Endgame

The Indian company that was chosen to be our co-sourcing partner will give their best and final offer (BAFO) soon. A lot of the people in the department are mulling the various options that may be available to them. Yesterday at lunch, our supervisor said that an option maybe to be paid a retrenchment package plus a job offer from the Indian company. This looks like a win-win option becuase we get paid plus have a new job. We just don't know how long we will last in the Indian company if we choose to work for them.

I guess this is the reality that we should be looking at: where information technology is no longer a core business function of manufacturers. An activity best outsourced possibly to an Indian company. I have been reading about this situation in books like 'Wikinomics' or 'The World is Flat' but it is really a different situation when faced in real life. I guess everything is random following the ideas explained in the 'The Black Swan'. But at the end of the day, not really random as this is a business reality that has already been ocurring in the recent years all over the world.

For my case, there are some 'rumors' that I may be moved to another country. Not a good option as I may leave my family to work abroad as my kids are taking their pre-college courses. But it is a good option in terms of career prospect. This is an option that I am seriously looking at if it is offered. Nevertheless, my horoscope for the 'Year of the Rat' portends of change in career or location this year and generally good for me. So even the stars have aligned to depict my fate in 2008. Whatever the outcome, change is afoot. I have joined a health club near the office and exercising nearly everyday. Not only does it keep me physically fit but prepares me mentally for the coming challenges.

Since the start of January I have been attending guitar lessons. I want to keep my mind in tip top shape by learning new things. I have read somewhere that musician's brains have strong physical connections between the left and right hemispheres as compared to other professions. So I hope to improve my brain 'biologically' (?) by learning music skills. Anyway, all these activities like working out in a gym and guitar lessons help to keep my spirits up instead of descending into despair, worry and anxiety due to the circumstances in the office .

Ides of March

The dust has finally settled with my debacle with the boss man. I am out. Well not really as I am still helping in the operational side. But it's all for the best. My detractors have been taken out of the project and a new team is in place. I am now helping the new team though in a diminished role. Good for me as I can focus on the projects within my domain. But as I am still involved by a thread so to speak and I can still be called to help out in the project if things do not turn out well. In summary, the result after the dust has settled: my detractors are out, I am still in though barely and I can focus on my 'real' projects. More importantly, I am not held fully responsible for the issues (although I should be) as there is now a recognition I believe that internal politics was the real cause of the debacle.

But despite the final settling of accounts, a larger concern looms in the horizon. The company has finally moved forward toward 'co-sourcing' our jobs. Well, not exactly, as more like a relocation towards the countries were business resides in. The role of a regional head office, away from business is not realistic. So the likely options are: transfer to China or Thailand, move to another department, get absorbed by the outsource company (based in India) or leave the company with a (hopefully) generous package while looking for a new job. Our fate will be known by end-March when personnel will meet each of us to discuss the future. So the end of life as we know it for the past 6 years is likely to end soon. Possible by the end of 2008 as the final cogs are put into place.

I have a feeling that it's time to move on. I have spent a lot of time already in the office and recent events like the debacle with the boss man has tired me out. It has removed whatever excitement and foolish naivete that I still had. In fact, even my horoscope seems to portend my future. The prediction for the year of the rat for my specific birth year tells of a change of house and /or change of job. There is a prediction of big changes. In some cases, it predicts a change for the good. But let us see and wait for the play. Some accounts have said to wait patiently and see how the event reveal themselves. Very well. We will know soon. In the meantime, I have been trying to 'sharpen the saw' following S.Covey's works. I just read his latest book, 'The 8th Habit' and it is a good road map for the future. S.Covey works like 'The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People' have been helpful to me in certain periods of my life. Now my future seems to be proceeding like in the past.

Re-framing Past Experiences

Past obstacles and failures need to be re-assessed to get a healthy perspective of the past. Most of the time, past failures result in depression and the blues. But after looking back at the events with a more detached and experienced eye, I think the real lessons can be learned. Most projects end with a lessons learned session but this can still be too close to the actual events which make a more objective assessment difficult.

I previously was engaged in a difficult project about 4 years ago where an application was developed in a rapid and pressurized environment. I had a do the specification in a piece by piece fashion which was not the norm in our organization. Traditionally, the complete functional specification are made following a structured water-fall methodology. But the circumstances did not allow for this type of slow, structured process. So we went a head and did the project and we were heavily criticized. My assessment was not good and I suffered a bit from this experience although the application was delivered though a bit delayed.

In fact, the type of methodology is now called agile development where iterative processes are advocated instead of slow and traditional structured method. So we went through the project following an agile method following our intuition and self-organizing ourselves in this fashion to respond to the environment. Hence, we can say that we were following the methodology of the future though we and the organization did not realize at that point in time. It was a messy project but the team in fact, re-engineered an old application developed in an obsolete language and moved it into a web-based, intranet application.

I think this illustrates the importance of re-framing past experiences especially so-called failures because new developments and experiences will help us assess what really happened by using one's present knowledge and ability. Outsourcing the boss man's data warehouse as another example, is a world wide trend to foster global collaboration with external suppliers. Previously, I had thought that it was a personal failure in my part. Of course, as project manager I do share the blame but I have recovered by moving the development from the in-house team towards a more experienced and skilled outsourcing company. It was really the wave of the future experienced close hand.

Re-framing past experiencing may seem like the usual spin to improve one's reputation but, then again, one is entitled to one's viewpoint. We all have a right to express what we feel like the true course of events -> our own spin so to speak. But the pain and suffering has already occurred and this exercise is more like a recovery operation where one takes time to understand the past events and move forward with a better understanding of the past and make us a better person that is able to handle future assignments. Reading the latest literature like 'Wikinomics' also helps in understanding the future to know more of the past.

New Year's resolutions

I have been on vacation for about 3 weeks and I have been reading a lot of books to help me strategize for the new year. I am reading an excellent book 'Wikinomics' which offers a good view of the feature. The key ideas in the book is a good starting point to make a strategy for the future. Key points for next year coming from my other readings and reflections are:

1. Outsourcing
2. Global collaboration -> Looking for solutions outside the company
3. Building on core skills - interpersonal, technical
4. Finding your voice - what do you want to say -> Covey's 8th Skill
5. Learning a new skill -> growing your brain biologically
6. Define a Life Strategy

I think these are the main points to work on for next year. The specific tactical details need to be adapted or worked out on the situation on the ground. I think there are a few good works that I have read also that may be interesting to apply such as sense-making or situation awareness.

Know How

I attach a mind map of a book I recently read on management know how. Some good tips discussed in the book by a famous business consultant. As the year ends, good time to take stock of one's failures and mistakes and plan to improve for next year. I think I have weathered the storm going forward to the new year but still a lot of things to do especially focusing on the maintenance jobs. The other projects are still extremely important and one should not lose sight of the ball.

I am glad that I was able to escape from the debacle with my foes in disarray. Not really but they are no longer in the arena. SO I have to pay ball with the new team on the ground. A better team no doubt and I have to learn from them and listen carefully at the signals and the way they want to mve forward. Anyway the mind map gives some traits htat are important to develop.