Next Year Resolution

Yesterday I signed a purchase agreement. Previously I thought hard about the possible options and decided against the purchase at least in the short to medium time frame. But it all changed yesterday when I signed the agreement. Why did I change my mind and went ahead against my own reasoned thinking? I guess this decision was a long time coming at least in the recent weeks when I pondered the best way to invest. I guess my option was to keep a large part in the bank and save for my kid’s education. My mind changed when I visited my friend’s home, the predicted rise in real estate prices next year and the possible loss of this supposed bargain if one doesn’t act now.


So this morning I started to search the Internet, looking at the Chinese zodiac predictions for next year – the year of the Tiger. For those born on the year of the Rabbit, the Tiger year of 2010 seem to offer a promising year in wealth, career and prosperity for Rabbits. But there are danger signals as well so Rabbits need to be careful. So the sage advise is to be prudent in expenses, work hard and ask help if in trouble. One even mentioned about changing one’s home and acting right away to get a good deal! It’s a laugh that after going through logical and reasoned analysis, one then goes to horoscopes and superstitions to check if one made the right decision.


Perhaps it’s the Asian in me to consult the stars and the supernatural to make sure I am on the right path. Now I guess the stars seemed to be aligned towards my decision in most predictions. The real trigger was to give my kids more room as the current place is too small. Looking back at my experience, real estate investing has given me more gains than stocks or bonds. One still invests in stocks but at a reduced rate. There are a lot of risks especially on rental but it seems to be the best play that one can get with his cards. I still have a few strategies left to play and the most important thing is to have a plan. It just takes the will and focus to pull through.

Next year, the best resolution to improve myself is to control my distractions and time wasting activities. I think it’s the most difficult thing to do because its seductive power fools one that he does not realize the battle is lost already. It’s like a slow descent into corruption or decadence. This includes borrowing too much books or DVDs in the library or surfing the Internet. It’s my main stumbling block and realizing it is the first step. Creating a working plan and following it is the next step. I have also thought about studying for another skill like medical transcription and strict control of time and focus to help one reduce these distractions can achieve this other goal, too.

I think I reached a point where one knows what to do in terms of investing as well as in writing and publishing. I have read a lot of books, attended seminars and surfed the Internet to get the needed information. It’s now time to hustle. The end of the year is the best time to take stock of one’s efforts, find out ones mistakes, know areas for improvement and plan for the next year. The previous months also served to acclimatize to the new environment and learn the rules. Finally, journalizing or reflecting is an enabler and I liked a quote I read, ‘One does not write to be understood but one writes to understand.’ It from a book called ‘Creative Journal Writing’ which actually promotes self-transformation and change. I guess one has got all the tools to make the next step.

Hokey Performance

We had our Christmas lunch last Friday at the nearby clubhouse of an exclusive golf course. It was suppose to snow based on the weather forecast the night before. Instead, there was a cold rain in the morning with a bitter wind. It did snow for a minute and sleet came in the late afternoon. But it was a cold, dark and cloudy day for the Christmas lunch though it did not dampen any spirits in the party.

In fact despite the inclement weather the party went well. The food was great and everyone was in a good mood. There were some performances after lunch which everyone enjoyed. There was a lot of singing, jokes, pantomime Ala Mr. Bean and bands playing rock and roll, blues and blue grass music. I volunteered to play a homemade bass instrument. It was made out of a wash bucket, broom stick and clothes string. I thought it gave out a deep sound, slightly like a bass guitar.


It was an instrument that is perhaps used by hillbillies up in some mountain homes in the Appalachian.It brought out a lot of laughs and I also had a belt which I used to simulate a whipping sound for one of the cowboy songs. That portion of the song elicited a lot of laughter. All in all, the performance was well received and my role was not as a real performer but as a 'comedic' act in the band. My friend said that most of the attention was focused on me rather than the others.

The rest of the band were actually great. I am glad to have been part of this troupe because it was like attending a master class in jamming. The lead singer is my friend, he is in his 60's and near retirement. But he is great with his guitar. The other players where great as well and being in their 50's or 60's. I was the youngest members of the group and least skilled. I guess my role was to get laughs from the crowd which was achieved.



Normally this type of performance scares me, especially performing in front of a large crowd. But I guess I have gotten used to it with my various public speaking exercises. The last time I performed in a musical show was in Singapore where I also joined a singing band for the Christmas party. We spent a lot of hours practicing in a private studio but when I got up in front of the act I nearly froze facing all those people in the ballroom. My voice came out in a squeak.

This time we only had a few minutes practice. Two days before the show and a few minutes before showtime. But I was not nervous as I should have been because I was not singing or really playing a musical instrument. I was there strictly for laughs and if I was able to bring out a few bass tunes from that contraption then it was a welcome bonus. I thought that I would play it 'straight', by being very serious about my role and allow the absurdity or the uniqueness of the situation to provide the laughs. Something like John Belushi's performance in 'The Blues Brothers'.

I think I succeeded because of the smiles in the faces of the people and the fact that a lot of people I did not know shook my hand and congratulated me after the show. I think being absolutely serious was the key to the performance. Sort of an understated Belushi moment. The department head like the show a lot and thanked me with laughter in his eyes. My immediate boss said it was a hokey performance. Being the new boy around, I think it spread a lot of goodwill and warm feeling. I hope this would help me in the next year.

The Christmas show is my last major effort in the office if I can say that. I will be off for a 2 week vacation visiting my relatives in the West Coast. It is going to be a pleasant experience seeing my old friends and seeing the coast and new cities and new things. I hope this would re-fresh me for the coming work ahead. I think it's a nice way to end the year after the work I have done and after the show the other day. I guess I don't need to exert more effort to get my self known and just have a 'low key' existence in the office. The Christmas show is the last 'foolish' thing for me for the time being to get myself recognized.

Novelist Procrastination

The year is coming to a close and I had to complete my yearly assessment before going on holiday next week. We usually have an informal monthly meeting with my immediate boss to discuss goals but we have not been meeting for the past few months. I am not sure what this means though I think I am doing something good otherwise I would need to have more supervision if I was doing something wrong. From the optimistic side, I would think that I need less supervision. On the worst side, I am possibly boring and have nothing significant to report anyway. But I am being paranoid again and to assess the situation fairly, I would think that my boss is letting me settle down. After all I am less than a year in my present post so nothing significant is expected from me.


I still went through the form and I think I did not do badly this year. I went to a lot of training perhaps about 10 days overall. I read through the needed documents and I think I understand the process as well as the application. I was able to produce a few design documents as well although both projects are late though not due to a fault of mine. From an objective viewpoint, I have produced the deliverables required of me, organized meetings and led the project when I was required to. I also participated in a lot of meetings with the management teams. I seem to be lost in not realizing the work that I do at the office as I tend to focus on my life outside of work.


Most of my thinking time last weekend was spent watching DVDs I borrowed. It was a relatively cold weekend with temperature reaching 40s F so spent most of the time at home. I surfed the Internet looking for investment advice. I found a good feature in CNN featuring the head of PIMCO. He clearly and simply explained the cause of the financial crisis and provided some great advice. I also took the Financial Times Money Gym course to make sure I have good understanding on investing. I had made a modest purchase of C shares last Thursday. The share price increased last Friday making me a $ 40 profit but went down today which gave me a loss of about $ 110 at noon. I am not sure where I am at this moment. It seems that I have neglected my readings about ETFs and plunged head long to stock picking.


I have my reasons on investing directly in stocks and I discovered a good website called Cake Financial which is like a social network of stock investors. I discovered this site while surfing on the weekend. There are a lot of good sites around that is useful for self directed investors like me. Looking back this year has been quite hectic and eventful that I don’t realize how much stress I have been putting myself into. This year, I had sold my house, bought a new one, enrolled my kids in a new school, invested in NYSE, joined local Toastmaster, joined the local library, borrowed books and DVDs and learned a lot of new topics. Still I feel that I am late somehow in adapting and that I should speed up the pace by reading more, watching more and experiencing more. In fact I should slow down and enjoy the fruits of my labors.

Now I think I have some expertise on the local real estate market, the local stock market, and about the financial crisis. I also increased my understanding of local politics and history. I also read more about writing and how the new tools and the Internet could help a striving novelist. Now there is too much information in the brain. I guess one needs to slow down. What is driving me nuts these days is the investment opportunities that my frenzied imagination is thinking off. Should I invest more in property or stocks? Should I invest in the US or emerging markets? Meanwhile I still think I can complete my book while watching too much videos and reading multiple books and magazines. It’s the frenzied mind that the Buddhist talks about and which I reacquainted myself with while listening to John Burdett’s thriller ‘Bangkok Tattoo’.

Getting Up to Speed

Moving to another country with a family requires a fast track to the new home’s life style. For example, moving from Asia to America is a big leap. The attitudes and perspectives are miles apart that perhaps one could easily adapt if one spent his growing years feeding on Hollywood movies, western music and western literature. Still not enough to ensure an easy landing as it’s a big step to understand the inner working of American life. For instance, if one moves from a society that encourages public transportation to a car owner centric culture. Also, from a society that is based on scarcity to one of abundance.


After hitting the ground, the first thing that one should work on is one’s credit score. The credit score is one’s doorway to a good life. Getting a good credit score means having a credit card (sometime more than one) and using it frequently, paying a mortgage and a car loan at the very least. In other words, being in debt is the goal. Saving money is not something that is respected here. So being in debt to financial institutions is one’s passport to prosperity. It’s like an enormous factory producing money so that one should avail of this outpouring of credit to fit in. If one does not avail of credit, the powers that be will lower your credit score and adversely affect your future prospects.


Being in debt actually means that one is a part of a society who insures that the wheel of ‘prosperity’ is constantly turning. The turning wheel encompasses a long chain that start from the raw materials dug from the ground in Asia or Africa, products built in the factories of China and Malaysia or Eastern Europe, shipped through the seas to the developed world and sold on huge malls like Carrefour and Wall-Mart. This also means the multitude of cars manufactured in factories all over the world as well as the houses being built and stocks being sold all of which contribute to a rising bubble. A bubble means that it’s a fake, something not real but driven by artificial means.


Strangely, that’s modern life and one should know how to navigate all the complexities to be successful. Learning about IRA, ROTH plans medical insurance, health care, college tuition, car loan, mortgages, interest rates, ARM or fixed rate loans, driver’s permit, federal aid, bankruptcy laws, federal and state taxes, immigration laws and so on are just a part of what one needs to understand to settle here. All these are interconnected and affect your life in ways that you would not realize. But all these structures and rules and laws work to make one’s life a success in ‘the pursuit of happiness’.

Somehow these are the concrete manifestations of a dynamic society that works; a way of life shaped by wars and greed, by innovation and wealth and individual effort and hard work. Things seem much simpler back in Asia until one realizes that the government and its bureaucrats make all the money. Everyone here needs to hustle and all these structures aim to equip one with the ability to make money; often with a chance even to be wealthy. Of course, it’s an illusion because like a bubble it’s all a fake. No inner contentment despite the large house, new car and latest gizmos. Perhaps this is where Asia trumps the west with its yoga, tai chi, meditation and cultivation of the inner life.

Asian Plants

My tropical plants are dying in the winter. I thought that these plants would survive using my example as a metaphor, hardy enough to survive the new environment. Actually I miss read the instruction which I thought indicated that it would survive the coming winter. It was doing fine in the recent cold mornings but one particular specie seems to have died. It was about 32 degrees this morning and looks like it was too much for this plant. My wife said that maybe it’s hibernating. But I knew that it was either dead or near dead as it’s not a plant that is around here.


My co-workers have already warned me to keep the tropical plants in the house. I had thought that these plants where ‘all season plants’ after buying them in Wal-Mart. I explained that gardening in Asia means buying the plants and sticking them in the ground. Almost always the plant will thrive verdantly. Of course there are only 2 seasons in South East Asia, the monsoons and summer or when it’s not raining. So one is either wet or dry which makes it only 2 seasons really. Unlike in America where there are 4 seasons with winter coming as the plant killer.


Foolishly I had initially thought this Asian plant will survive the winter because winters are not as harsh as up north as in New York or Maine or Chicago or Michigan or even Canada. So I had the false bravado that like me, the plant will survive its new surrounding considering that it’s near tropical weather. But the cold spell this morning was the last straw. The leaves turned brown and the stems seemed to have collapsed. It's bright colors where replaced by brown and the other dark colors of death. Most of the nearby trees are bare and have already shed their leaves but I still foolishly thought that some how these tropical plants would survive.



I did not have the heart to go down and look at them. I was already late for work. So I had planned to bring them inside later to see if there’s still a chance for them to survive. Maybe they are just hibernating just like my wife said. But their dark shrunken image does not inspire hope. I guess South East Asian plants really need more care and effort. Perhaps I should have purchased plants from North Asia. Plants that survive the harsh winter climate of China, Japan or Korea. I should have researched these plant varieties more and looked for them in Wal-Mart or Lowe’s or Home Depot.

Going back to the metaphor, will a South East Asian survive the winter? Of course with enough clothing and sweaters and thermal underwear one can survive even the most terrible of winters. One should not be careless in the new surrounding and keep one’s wits about. The plants would have survived simply by putting them inside the house, away from the harsh weather. It was overconfidence and deluded thinking that equated the survival of the tropical plant to one’s personal situation that killed it. Perhaps this is a good example of behavioral economics where one’s overconfidence can result in disastrous decisions.

Investing in Financials

One can’t figure out the best place to invest these days. Keeping money in the bank is not enough due to inflation. With today’s prices in both stocks and real estates one is tempted to invest in both. On the other hand, ‘low’ prices actually mean that past highs were not realistic so the bubble burst. Some articles advise readers to put money in stocks and real estate now because the price is right. At the moment, a slight bullish sentiment exists in the stock market. For real estate, a further decline is expected. The Case-Stiller real estate index forecast declining real-estate prices in some states until late 2010. One would think that investing in real estate is the best bet in present circumstances.


What about stocks? For example, some folks are starting to think that Citibank is a good investment in the long run. The new CEO may be the best candidate, all things considered although he does not have leadership gravitas. Information from other articles mention that he is a 'quant' – someone who is more mathematically inclined, more comfortable in financial equations than in human resources. Not a good combination considering the importance of emotional intelligence in leadership. But under the circumstances, a ‘quant’ maybe what Citibank needs to steer through all these complex financial derivatives the company finds itself possessing. Most CEOs in banks where clueless in the financial engineering that took place and resulted in disasters. See Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, UBS and even Citigroup.


With a ‘quant’ leading the bank, is that enough to steer the company through the challenges ahead? And what about government ownership via TARP? Looking at the bank’s reports, Citibank seem to have a good business model moving forward. The strategy is to leverage its global presence (in 110 countries) and get revenues in the only place where there is money and growth: Asia. The government investment is just another indication that the bank will not fail. Hence, the good factors are: a good business strategy for the future, a financial genius as a head, and a government ‘guarantee’ from bank failure plus restructuring and cost – cutting moves. Despite these good points though, the market does not believe the company will survive let alone thrive.


The stock price is an indication of this perception. Some articles even state that the company is already dead; it’s just a process of dismembering the corpse. But this view is not realistic considering above points. Perhaps the perception is that there are still some hidden surprises lurking somewhere in the balance sheet: maybe in commercial property foreclosures or credit card losses or maybe even in sub-prime mortgages. But again these are likely seen by a management team headed by a ‘quant’ and mitigated by the government presence. People like Robert Rubin say that Vikram Pandit is a genius and that he could see around ‘corners’. I watched some videos in the internet and he looks capable and smart.

The key is to keep the management team in place to foster stability. One assumes that the government perceives this problem and ongoing re-structuring such as breaking the company into two (Citigroup and Citi Holdings) will allow for better management while keeping Vikram Pandit in place. I think all these factors are sufficient to consider Citi stocks as a good long term investment. The market does not perceive these improvements possibly because it does not believe in the current leadership (which includes government ownership). Or perhaps there are intentional moves to keep this perception alive so a larger bank would gobble up Citibank. If another bank does come in, maybe JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, investing is good as well. The ‘purchase’ stock price maybe expected to be profitable to insure taxpayers get their money back. Perhaps the final price should be around the USD $ 6 – 8 dollar range. Of course, there are a lot of risks because no one really knows how the future will play out.

On the other hand, considering all the other investment these maybe the most reasonable, all thing considered. But it’s the price that makes it attractive at USD $ 4 range. A less risky investment of course would be exchange traded fund (ETF) but recent prices from USD $ 25 to USD $ 45 would translate to lower number of shares and less profit. One should have at least 2,000 to 3,000 shares to experience a good return even with a slight increase in the share price. At the end of the day, investing in Citibank would mean keeping the money invested for at least 7-10 years to experience any significant profit. I think it’s a better bet than gambling in Las Vegas except for the much longer time frame.