The Little Investment Guide Book

Last weekend I read another investment guide called the little book about making money or something like that.  I don't know why it is always called the little book, something like the popular For Dummies series. I think someone started it long ago, a retired investment banker who wanted to share his experience and wrote a slim volume with the title my little book that started a trend though the writer was emphasizing passive investment. A week before I read another slim volume called 'The Sages' about George Soros, Warren Buffett and Paul Volcker.  It was a very educational book and the investment styles of both Soros and Buffett are so much different.  Volcker who was the Federal Reserve head before the infamous Greenspan is another specie. The common link is their down to earth insight and prescience towards crisis and their calls for financial reform.I realize again my ignorance after reading these books.

The little book series was about fundamental investment along the Buffett (and Benjamin Graham) school of thought. Soros on the other hand is a strategic and macroeconomic thinker, familiar with global trends - he is uniquely qualified to have a world view; born in Hungary, fleeing Eastern Europe in the wake of both the Nazi and then Communist take over, studying economics in London, earning his living as a stock broker, before moving to Wall Street in New York and soon started a hedge fund. Buffett on the other hand, never left the country, studying the fundamentals of companies and buying and holding stock or businesses while Soros made his riches exploiting opportunities all over the world, gaining notoriety when shorting the British pound and 'breaking' the bank of England.

I prefer Buffett's buy and hold strategy, looking for bargain stocks that have lost favor with the general market (thereby cheap) or in a turnaround position but fraught with risk. I am again reading another book by Jim Rogers called 'Street Smarts'. Rogers worked with Soros and co created the Quantum Hedge Fund. He made his riches investing in trends like Soros until he retired and traveled the world. He now lives in Singapore, preparing his family for the coming Chinese century, his young children studying Mandarin. Soros and Rogers have a world view and are strategic thinkers similar to other known investors like Mark Mobius and John Templeton. In experience I am biased towards the Soros view, born in one Asian country (Philippines) where I studied economics (that dismal science), living and investing in Singapore, following a buy and hold strategy and moving to the US and modestly investing in American stocks and real estate following value investing guidelines.

Unfortunately I don't have the patience or the inclination to study companies like Buffett, instead focusing on cheap blue chip companies that are recovering their former glory or trying to improve their business after a downturn or unpopular in the market. Companies like Bank of America, Nokia and City bank. I just borrowed a new guide called the little book about trading which will hopefully round out my learning. I am not a brilliant investor by any standard and think my meager investment are both widespread - diversified as some gurus would say and as Buffett would say - diversification is the strategy of those who are ignorant of the market or something like that. I don't have the big pockets or guts of a Buffet or Soros and prefer diversifying my modest savings so I wont lose everything in one disaster following Nassim Taleb's Black Swan thesis. Hence, I don't have the deep technical skills needed in value analysis but instead compensate with a strategic view of the economy by buying cheap stocks and real estate for the long term, exploiting the bearish trends until the bulls recover.

To conclude, I am a mish mash of theories whether Benjamin Graham, or the efficient market theory but with some investment experience in the stock market of three different countries in a mix of stock, mutual funds, ETFs, REITS and investment bonds.  I can understand economic trends and try to profit from them with an understanding of macroeconomic theory (but all hogwash as Buffett would say stating that he would not change his investment even if a central banker whispered a secret  his ear- a testament to his knowledge of the companies he has invested in). Therefore I am a modest investor following Kiyosaki's Rich Dad Poor Dad strategy of investing in real estate while keeping myself updated of world trends by watching television shows like the BBC's recent 'Changing Wealth' about today's high net worth individuals. This is called improving one's financial literacy as Kiyosaki would say.

At the end of the day, I think I have come at the right opportunity with both the real estate and stock market prices down due to the financial crisis of 2008-09 and with my modest knowledge and experience, I invested my meager savings in rental property and stocks, experiencing a good return now that the US economy is recovering. Luck plays a big part as Taleb would say but opportunity prefers the person with a prepared mind. Such is the circumstances I find myself in, where investment opportunities abound while I adjust to my new circumstances and job challenges. I think I would have invested more if not for the Roth IRA restrictions which limit ones contribution per year. Other method would risk the payment of capital gains taxes. I guess I am an opportunist looking for the next wave, trying to profit modestly and avoiding loss just like everybody else, saving hard earned money from the monster of inflation

New Job

I have been at my new job for a month now. Similar to the support role in Singapore but in a wider arena - more people, more requests, more applications and more developers. Technically it is not a difficult job but the volume and scale requires one to be organized, disciplined and unhesitating. It is a job that requires instant action or one will be left behind.  Not only is the assignment new but I have to keep working on my current project as an analyst plus the other assignments given me: on obsolescence and coordination with the China project – a contributor role that is not big but pressured because of China; the name itself giving import and priority above all else. But the local office has its own priorities and agenda which make the gathering of resources difficult. So ones needs to be shrewd like King Rat, where one learns to scrap by, looking for any lead or opportunity or advantage that will one can get by with, the barest minimum to claim a passing score if not all out success.

Frankly, I like the job and the effort would be easy if it was the only thing I did but one still goes about his own agenda, continuing to clutter one’s mind with endless input that one cannot help it. The situation reminds me of Nam June Paik’s exhibit at the National Gallery in Washington, DC where one long wall in an immense room is filled with television or computer screens displaying images all over the world while a small section entitled Matrix goes about its own set of images and not coordinated with the other screens. It was the first time that I appreciated modern electronic art and that was the first time I realized what Paik wanted to say, with his modern exhibits of television screens amidst a garden, robots and more television screen which seem to portray the digital age and its dizzying complexity and confusion. It was the first time I felt that art could indeed guide the world by providing insight to ordinary people. I sat down and watch the images unfold in the multitude of screen, each telling its own story then coming together to tell the same story like river collapsing into an ocean, the images constantly changing and merging together.

http://www.paikstudios.com/


I had never appreciated avant garde art before and did not quite understand Paik’s work but I understood immediately the disorientation due to technology that he wanted to express, as I compared my job with its constant email alerts from automated programs, where people across the organization create tickets which zap through the ether into my inbox and which I need to undertake a sequence of actions corresponding to the message. I miss the old days when one meets people and talks to them and work through a problem, although that does not go away but one has to schedule meetings, book rooms create agendas before one could have a simple conversation with the aggrieved user like in the past. The job is bewildering, where one accelerates intake of stimuli which I rather like and one of my strengths so I am in an area of advantage. This allows to one have extracurricular activities like continuing my reading in history, art, finance economics and investment. It’s funny that one finds himself in fruitful circumstances where one has opportunities to invest in real estate and stocks which also produce stress with the desire to participate in the boom.

Getting your Brain to Work

Perhaps it’s a slow day, or the start of the week, or just the coming of age, but the brain just doesn’t get it. So come aboard the narrative therapy and see if it all makes sense. New reading brought a new investment idea: demographics and sector-economics by a new guru – Bob Froehlich, confidently espousing a theory that certain unavoidable truths like demographics can be put to good use. Aging boomers – invest in healthcare stocks, emerging nations and their youth – invest in consumer goods targeted to the young, the convergence plus continuing rise of technology – invest in tech stocks. The sheer demographics of the reality will inevitably result in profit. This strategy is more in the George Soros mold who studies industries and economic trends, rather than the Warren Buffett School of fundamental analysis of companies. Nevertheless, Dr.Doom himself – Nouriel Roubini is predicting that the stock market will rise in the coming 2 years before all hell breaks loose.

http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/20130506/PRINTEDITION/305039967

So it is refreshing to read Mary Buffett’s ‘The Stock Portfolio of Warren Buffett’ – a former daughter in law of the billionaire, being previously married to his son Peter; or so it says in the internet. It is like a refresher course, coming back to the fundamentals before it all became complex with technical trading, derivatives, options and other so–called financial weapons of mass destruction. This morning while I was at the gym, MSNBC interviewed Warren Buffett and, listening to him talk, calmed my investment nerves like an elderly grandfather saying all will be well, just stay the course. Last week I ordered Froehlich’s other books like ANTS (Alternative Non Traditional Investments) which focus on currencies and real estate which seems to me a good path with all the uncertainty. Indeed, one is not a billionaire like Warren who actually buys companies as well as invests in stocks. The world is a changing as Bob Dylan said, which reminds me of the BBC series, Changing Fortunes – about the changing patterns of global wealth.

A good series viewable in the Internet with interesting characters – wealthy billionaires or multi-millionaires in places like the US, Brazil, China and India; filled with short articles and info-graphics. Singapore is heralded into the select few with more millionaires per square feet likely due to the rising price of real estate in that small island, astute government management and their focus on financial services – another demographic shift predicted by Froehlich. It will be interesting to see how Singapore’s PAP will manage the rising discontent of its middle class perhaps with the Chinese method of providing the basics (or throwing money at the problem) at the expense of political liberties plus the fading of founding father LKY. But time is a changing across the straits in Malaysia too with the National Front maintaining their parliamentary majority but losing seats to the opposition as the Chinese ethnic group voted against the government, wary of the affirmative action that favors Malays at the expense of meritocracy. Singapore would probably favor a win by the opposition for their economy to expand, a long standing strategic view of LKY if Singapore is to survive the future.

A good investment is Singapore real estate as one can profit from rising prices and get a ring side seat to the Gotterdammerung of the PAP and National Front as more political and economic liberties are demanded by their middle class; perhaps with unintended consequences. The emerging markets in South East Asia will be a sight to see like the dazzling Shanghai Bund as one gazes across the river at the futuristic buildings in Pudong, a scene in the sci-fi movie ‘Looper’, that I watched in the weekend. Sadly, I neglected to mow the lawn due to the rain as I bought a lawn mower and trimmer from Lowes, assorted tiles, sand and plants for a summer project, neglected to organize my emails into folders to prepare for my new role in the coming 8 days, but absurdly able to complete my weekend one hour walk in the park, watch assorted moves and documentaries and read several magazines and books. I altered my routine to go to the gym in the early morning before going to the office, emboldened by new energy from a restful sleep due to the CPAP machine and being home early. But I am still lost in my current project I try to complete the last plodding steps in a marathon while the pressures of my new assignment await me.

Writing makes sense of it all, from understanding the swirling ideas in investment, the changing patterns of wealth and geopolitical alignments, the new order at work and in the world, making plans for the future, raising kids and wondering how to help these young adults in the new country, striving out in doubt and confusion, beaten by challenges at work, but unbowed and moving forward to make sense like Ishmael going to the sea to calm his mind, finding a great whaling ship to chase the huge leviathan across the ocean like finding truth to set one free. Instead of the vast seas is the nature park, where trees and lakes provide a natural substitute for the solitude of the wide ocean; and the Internet where one can find new ideas unencumbered by the cubicle and the anonymity of blogging where narrative therapy is like getting lost in a large universe as one’s vessel rides up and down the swells of the tide, driven forward by a mad captain chasing the futility of a dream, perhaps of wealth and fame. One cannot help but see some underlying symbolism in Moby Dick – a book I am reading in preparation for the coming of Herman Melville in the Spring Chautauqua festival.

Robinson Lake

We had a picnic at Lake Robinson yesterday, Sunday. Lunch was fried chicken, Thai noodles, curry vegetables, rice, French pastries, dark chocolate, water melon and cantaloupe. We tried to fish but did not catch any, though some ‘fishermen’ nearby where able to catch some small fishes. Everyone enjoyed the picnic; but the day was cloudy and had an overcast sky although it did not rain, which may have been the best weather as we ate in a table without a roof, and therefore a sunnier day would have been hot. At the lake, the wind was breezy so I wore my fleece jacket which kept me warm.  I have been to the lake a couple of times to fish but it was the first time I came with my friends. Our Thai couple just came from Italy, arriving on Friday night so we were glad they could make it. Jean-Luc came with his wife and daughter and was happy to be with us. All in all, four families or couples came to the picnic and we had a fun time talking about food and our travels, especially since our Thai friends just came from their holiday. I had organized the picnic thinking that it would be good for everyone to be out in the lake after being indoors during winter.

The topic was travel and sometimes I wish the discussion was different because I have not had an opportunity to travel to Europe recently so I could bring my wife. But lately we have been going out a lot during the weekend, hiking in the nearby nature park on Saturday and a few weekends ago, to Atlanta. After the picnic, we went to BiLo supermarket where I bought more plants which were being sold at a huge discount. All in all, I bought two Madagascar Dragon plants, two Ginger plants and another leafy plant but I did not know the name; all stood 2 feet high and where sold at less than $ 10 each.  I will keep these plants inside the house so air can be detoxified, especially since I have been using my CPAP machine and my concern on Radon gas that I am more conscious of air quality. I turned inward again after the picnic, deep in thought, especially about the conversation on travel, perhaps started by my posting and editing of my blog entries early Sunday morning, the only time I had a chance to do so. I wrote those entries last week, after reflecting on the seminars I attended and my Toastmaster and PMP experiences, assessing my progress and thinking about the next step forward.

Yesterday I had a cold and kept sneezing when we got back home, so I drank two shots of bourbon and started the steam inhaler, hoping that my runny nose would go away. I got to bed at 11 pm, glad that I had done my weekend reading and viewing before the picnic, so all I needed to do was pack, shave and watch the Vikings series at 10pm. I was able to fall asleep right away but woke at around 3 am and could not get back to sleep, so I went down to the library to read, picking up the book ,’How to Be a Writer’, a work recommended by Ray Bradbury that I had been planning to read for some time. The first chapters say that a writer has two lives and his main challenge is to integrate these two lives in order to be a successful writer, a task best done before attending seminars on craft. The book was written in the 1930’s, a classic work although seldom mentioned by modern writers, the main premise being that most aspiring writers have a personality problem that needs to be addressed – reconciling both his creative and logical personality. This is an interesting take on the subject, despite the seemingly dated way of the prose; formal long sentences that I hope to decipher in order to learn some new way to help me.

Rich Poor Dad

Last night I attended a workshop sponsored by Rich Dad. It was a great event with an inspiring speaker, though I did not enroll in their course. Previously I attended the stock investing course and I was curious to see if there was anything new. There were a lot of different people in the room; well-dressed professionals in their long sleeves and ties, housewives, retirees and some unemployed or would be entrepreneurs in shorts. The speaker was good, likely a professional presenter or a sales man selling a well-known product. The event went like clockwork, like a Hollywood affair, with a video show, a slick master of ceremony in coat and tie and finally the main speaker, a smooth African-American from Chicago. This was the last Southern city in their itinerary, swinging to cities along the I-85 corridor, from North to South Carolina. The core message was always the same, serving as a re-fresher for me, similar to touching base on my financial strategy; a combination of Robert Kiyosaki and Warren Buffet, to get into investing, owning a business and avoid relying on a 9 to 5 job.

Earlier that day, I fulfilled my yearly contribution to my Roth IRA, buying a few shares in Bank of America, Xerox and Nokia, very small amounts but still following the strategy. In the seminar, a high school teacher sat beside me and we talked in the parking lot after the show. He was familiar with Kiyosaki’s work although he took down notes in his iPad during the seminar. Together with his wife, he owned a couple of rental properties and was the image of the Kiyosaki acolyte; teach the famous quadrant and play the Cash flow game with his students. This is the true message of Kiyosaki, to teach financial literacy, which may turn out to be the most important education that one can have, a fact focused in the video where a list of successful and wealthy people who did not complete college, flashed by: Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs, Larry Ellison, Henry Ford and so on.  The lessons sprang forth in the room, lecturing to the chorus it would seem as most people where familiar with the message. Somehow I was reminded of MLK speaking in his Baptist ministry, but now the lesson was all about money.

I had attended 3 similar sessions before, read 5 Rich Dad books and attended 3 or 4 online seminars so I did not feel excited. Rather I felt tired and realized the con game being played; hoping that I would not see any colleagues from work, realizing that I should have known better and avoid the sleazy pitch that every hard working person knows; there is no short cut or secret knowledge that one will get from paying this sort of money. But even the con artist is feeling the pitch because the company is really a financial education company – not really a seller of a product like those old snake oil sales men but a seller of knowledge. The old price was about $ 1500 for a 3 day course, now down to $ 200 and you can bring your spouse, too. Now that is a bargain but the cynical can also see that this is not a bad idea – bring the spouse to increase one’s financial literacy and avoid divorce where the number one cause is money. Then again it was really a smart pitch to sell during these difficult times and a few went up and enrolled, afraid of missing the discount when enrolling early.

I was just glad that I could attend some interesting lectures this week and see all these good speakers and get a brief opportunity to speak in public myself. I guess it is a welcome break as I am getting too anxious at my work. Yesterday some exchange of email got me stressed, thinking that the writer was out to get me, not respecting my rights and belittling me. Last night I applied cognitive therapy and thought that maybe this person is expressing a legitimate concern, hammered by the troublesome application we turned over a few months back. I guess he was just concerned about his job and I should have done better in communication. I always re-interpret emails in the wrong way, thinking of darker motives, feeling embattled and sorry for myself. One can never be silent but speak out in a controlled and well thought out way, not to lash out and strike everyone. This will be the greatest challenge in my new work, to be smart and to discern the true meaning of their message which is sometimes difficult to do, considering all our different background and training. But communication is key and one should be careful especially when driven by emotions.

Working on PDUs

Last Tuesday I attended a day long symposium on project management. About 120 to 150 people attended the event. There were interesting speakers and the event was a welcome break from work. The event was held in a convention center in downtown, about 35 minutes from home. I had a chance to network and meet new people as well as banter with my office mates who attended. There were a lot of interesting lectures and I remember 2 exceptional ones. Looking back at the symposiums I attended in Singapore, I could not recall a specific outstanding lecture though I am sure there where exceptional ones there too. The speakers where well prepared and some had excellent visual aids. I recalled how terrible I was when I presented at the Singapore symposium; I had written a good paper (I felt) for the presentation but got nervous and flustered when I stood in the podium to deliver my talk. I had been attending Toastmaster for some time when I volunteered to present but all went to naught when I stood in front of the audience. I was given a plaque of appreciation and had dinner with the team but felt I did not deserve the gratitude.  I guess I did not do badly when one is less emotional thinking about it.

My speaking event was the most memorable episode that I can recall among my many memories of attending the Singapore symposiums. These event had about 1000 people or more attending, where dinners where held in large ballrooms, and stretched to 2 -3 days. It was a huge occasion and I can recall lining up for food, reserving seats in the meeting rooms, going home or drinking with GK - my colleague who I usually go with at these events – a fellow project manager struggling to earn the expected PDUs. I guess it was the drinking session at the bars we frequented was the highlight for me, eating good food like crispy pork belly, hot Indian samosa and cold beer, looking out into the night, telling stories and trying to guess what would happen to our lives if the company closed. I guess it was a stressful time because our future was uncertain, the company restructuring while we were still installing and deploying systems around Asia while training the outsource people who will be replacing us. Thank God the future turned out well for me, moving here to the South and continuing my career. But I lost many good friends and a great country to live in with only the memories of those pleasant lunches with my friends and the bar hopping at night.

The next day, Wednesday, was our usual Toastmaster meeting day where I evaluated a speech and served as table topics master, speaking several times.  I felt more confident now after spending 6 years in Toastmaster. It was a strange feeling that moment when I talked in front of the audience, after recalling my near speaking disaster in the Singapore symposium years ago, a memory brought back by the Tuesday event.  Somehow I felt that I turned a corner, especially since I crossed the last project milestone for the small project I was working on, an endeavor estimated to cost about USD$ 75k. Now I am heading towards a new assignment where I will be working as a project manager like in the days in Singapore. In the last 4 years I have been here, I worked more as an analyst, an interesting job because it allows one to learn about the business. The new assignment is more management; it entails working with people and doing administrative work. So now I have to make sure I keep my certification up to date.

Game of Thrones

Last weekend was eventful although I failed to file my 2012 tax return which is due next week. I had hoped to finish my tax filing Saturday or Sunday night; considering that I may need to send my state tax paperwork by regular mail like last year.  Despite my failure in completing the most important task at hand, we were able to hike in the Conestee Nature Park for an hour, buy trees for planting from Lowes, finish Season 3 of the HBO epic ‘Game of Thrones’ – watching 10 episodes in a period of three days, watch the movie ‘Argo’ and view my allotment of DVDs from the library. I also cleared most of the stack of mail at my desk while searching for my tax documents, shredding and throwing away unneeded papers. I had planned to start work after finding my tax returns but that took up most of Sunday afternoon that I was tired and did not proceed as planned. But throwing and shredding all those junk mail was cathartic that I felt good despite my failure to complete the real goal.

While looking for my documents, shifting through the piles of paper and unread mail, I was listening to a lecture on creative non-fiction, a seven disk series that I borrowed from the library. The series was very good and featured writers that I read about recently like Truman Capote and Harper Lee. The speaker - an erudite professor who also talked about Mark Twain, Tom Wolfe, Norman Mailer and Lillian Ross as the purveyors of a new journalism known by its literary flourish. The best example is the work of Twain, Mailer and Capote. I was able to complete disk 3 and look forward to the next disks that will feature Gay Talese and Tom Wolfe – the writer of the book ‘Bonfire of the Vanities’ which was made into a film starring Tom Hanks. I am glad that my brain can still process or multi-task on these endeavors which I attribute to the vitamin supplements Gingko Biloba and St. John’s Wort that I started to take last week.  But the freshness of my mind is due more to the restful sleep I have been having for a week now since I started using the CPAP device – a true marvel of modern medicine.

The true highlight of the week aside from discovering the nature park, was watching ‘Game of Thrones’. A highly entertaining series that combines the spectacle and wizardry of Tolkien’s ‘Lord of the Rings,’ the Shakespearean medieval drama of kings and queens and the suspense and thrills of ‘The Wire,’ ‘Rome’ and ‘The Sopranos’ all delivered in a dark and stunning landscape. We watched 10 hours of Season 3 while I was squeezing through documentaries on architecture that featured Rem Koolhaas and Santiago Calatrava among others, an award winning film on Maya Lin - the architect of the Vietnam Memorial, and a film on Carl Jung, plus a 30-minute feature on the rise of Islam in Arabia that, inadvertently, preserved that teachings of Greece that led to the renaissance as the teaching where transmitted by Arab scholars after the fall of Rome. I should have paid more attention on the Jung film as I felt I will learn something new and meaningful, but the CD had problems and I could not finish the last minutes of the feature.

When one thinks about it, there are just too much ideas coursing through the mind in the weekend, dissimilar threads from literature, architecture, history and so on that it would seem impossible to focus on a simple task like filing one’s tax returns or writing a book.  Electrical signals sparking synapses in the brain, perhaps a biological bias driven by some genetic flaw in my DNA, something like an attention deficit syndrome that I control by writing or meditating or exercising; conducive in receiving a lot of information but unable to focus. Last Sunday I was watched the New York Times video magazine in Google’s spotlight gallery, a habit that I try to follow every weekend, like my usual habit of watching the Japanese series on restaurants every Sunday morning back in Singapore. But the novelty now seems empty, like I was cramming too much unnecessary information in my brain. Perhaps it is a subtle effect of getting a restful sleep via CPAP, when the brain is finally able to restore itself by slowing down as a sensible reaction.