Tax Deadline

During the weekend, I struggled to complete my tax return using Turbo Tax, working on Saturday and Sunday and finally completing by Sunday noon. I have been working on my taxes since last week after office until I decided that the effort needed a full weekend; to focus on assembling documents, preparing spreadsheets, making calculations on expenses and so on. The task is time consuming and requires a sustained effort of concentration, made difficult by the many diversions available: movies, books and music.  After I completed my tax return, thanking God for Turbo Tax, I wanted to play golf but I did not have time, I vacuumed the house and watched movies borrowed from the library. The source of stress is oneself, and I realize that I am driving myself crazy, the only way to cut down is to avoid going to the library, where the many books and magazine lie in wait, ready to entice me with numerous possibilities for distraction and mental strain. But working on my taxes and organizing my financial affairs, one realizes is THE important task; all others are frivolous distraction. But there are just too many good films to see or books to read that I remember St. Augustine praying that he be converted a little bit later so he can enjoy his philistine life a moment more.
 
I also realize that one’s mind is not as sharp as before, coupled by the effects of medication like statins that supposedly cause mental confusion, realizing that a sustained mental effort requires a force of will. One wonders if the challenge at work is really a suicide mission: the urge to fight back and conquer the work place is really stressing the mind. Age is what stops people from achieving their dreams at a late age, except for the late bloomers who seem to reach the pinnacle of their efforts at midlife. The need for mindfulness, the meditation technique pioneered by Jon Kabat-Zinn, is now practiced by more people in the workplace, confirming my instinct several years back when I discovered his work, but lapsed in the years since with the occasional Tai Chi and Yoga practice. One is glad of PBS with sponsored programs that feature Deepak Chopra, Daniel Amens and others who advise on how to keep the brain young and fight the ravages of time. It all came together in the weekend as I struggled to complete my returns and watched these shows that advised on the latest techniques. Strangely, I had a chance to read about Southern writers, a book by William Ferris with supplemental DVD and CD, with accounts from Eudora Welty, Alice Walker, Robert Penn Warren and Arthur Haley, keeping the dream alive; as one struggles with age.

Recently I meet with insurance sales men, talking about life and term insurance, about annuities plus reading about retirement design. Financial planning is clear now, especially last weekend as one organized his financial assets, going in the right direction and following instincts. I think one made good decisions, cautious on spending and investment, making small mistakes, following Nassim Taleb latest book on probability, focusing on diversification, savings and value investing. This effort requires clear thinking and abstract reasoning but affected by age, stress, exercise, diet, sleep habits and alcohol.  It can all come undone if one is not careful. There is too much living in the future or in the past where one is not mindful of the present moment; a curse that one did not realize until one begins to have problems focusing, escaping into books or movies to distract the mind. Mindfulness is a Buddhist discipline, not only an effort of mental exercise but philosophical intent. One is attracted to the element of discipline but lost to the transformative experience if one does not accept the metaphysical implications; a contradiction of both thinking and unthinking; to focus on the moment.

Active Weekend

I just finished my last year’s evaluation and so far it is positive, a welcome relief considering my anxiety of not shaping up, bewildered at times on what to do next. But it looks easy come to think of it; life is not really as bad a one would think, with fears affecting one’s actions when it should not be; one just needs to show up. I also met my customers in our monthly meeting this morning, going through my presentation with ease though still not as comfortable as I would like to be, realizing that I have all the tools I need; one should stay grounded and grasp the spiraling mind and wrestle the monkey back to earth. Sometimes one is too paranoid or afraid of what other people might think that one swirls into doubt and worry but it is really a friendly world when one is sincere. The week is turning out well, after a Wednesday club meeting with Toastmaster and after going over my to-do list for the week. But the weekend will be busy as I need to attend (remotely) an area governor’s meeting, install curtains and go to the gym which I have neglected to do this week. I also have a lot of books and magazines to read and videos to watch.

Yesterday I looked through my modest investment and Roth IRA, using the latest tools from my broker and realized that I have not done too bad although a very modest amount, beating the S&P in two of the past four years including the cumulative total, thinking that one has some talent and not random as some writers like Nassim Taleb would argue. In fact it’s been a busy four years since one arrived, acting like a crazed carpetbagger, eager to exploit the situation once on the ground, investing modestly in real estate and stocks, taking advantages of low interest rates and the depressed property market, a result of the 2008 – 09 financial turmoil. One was reading books and attending seminars like a madman, trying to get up to speed by improving one’s financial literacy in the USA and make use of the limited period inside a rare window of opportunity. With Bernanke leaving and plans to taper off the Fed’s quantitative easing, the window is closing and one wished one had more capital to invest. Nevertheless, it was a modest achievement, to exploit what one has with the cards dealt, adapting to the situation like a guerilla, a philosophy that works in the office as well.

For some reason, I saw my life flash before me as I lay in bed, unable to sleep because of my early meeting at 8:15 am, needing to come to the office by 7 am to prepare my presentation. I have gone far from my early life, both in physical miles and the projects and skills that I have accumulated, realizing that I have tread a long diverse road; the past 4 years another varied experience, finally ending up as the maintenance support manager with a track record as support and functional analyst and, now, project manager, diving deep into the local milieu of working with customers and solving problems. The past year has been an eye opener especially since my friend’s heart attack, working closely with him to help, learning in a rush about medical insurance and bankruptcy; similar to arriving here four years ago, up and running, engaged in difficult supply chain and logistics projects upon hitting the ground, getting my feet dirty so to speak. One also realizes his limitations, biting off more than one can chew by being area governor while accepting a new role at work, faced with unrelenting stress and demands on time and effort, learning that to-do list, focus and small steps matters most, not the flashy ground breaking large assignment that brilliant people aspire too.

I guess I like where I am today, realizing that one should not be complacent, striving to stretch more and expand, arriving at a pleasant destination after years of movement. It is not an easy place; one still needs to be on his toes, expanding beyond one’s comfort zones, realizing that perhaps it is the end game, where one has the elements in place to play out the last chapter. The young man is gone, together with his childish dreams and romantic notions, replaced by an aging fellow, no long nimble, with creaking bones and unwelcome heft, still mentally alert with a young heart, but body and mind realizing that the youthful vigor is in its last legs. What to do but adjust the machinery to its current capacity, perhaps allowing one to strike where one is strong; tactics and mental strategy, words and subtle actions while conceding the ground on one’s physical capacity, playing smart by supplementing one’s ability with vitamins and technology, keeping current and playing to strengths. But others are aging too; the world still belongs to the wise and crafty, not the young and agile, therefore it is the tortoise that eventually wins the race and not the rabbit.

Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver book is a wonderful fact filled work that attracts you to read but lacks the interesting insight of Malcolm Gladwell or Nassim Taleb. Silver is like one of those interesting young nerds who spew out facts and interesting tidbits but fail to get to the point. Nevertheless his book is an interesting romp into the realm of statistics and probabilities. One sometimes needs to pause and wonder what he is trying to say amidst the anecdotes and stories that abound. He makes an interesting observation on people – following the common distinction between hedgehogs and foxes; alluding that foxes are good in probabilities, who are able to distinguish between the signal and the noise. It is interesting to note that distinguishing the signal against the noise is a cognitive function – perhaps the distinction between what is the right news to absorb as against trash. One would need cognitive therapy in cases involving psychological problems.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise refers to statistics specifically the probability that an event would occur. This would cover the whole gamut from weather forecasting, to polling in election, to predicting earthquakes to economic forecast. I guess it is trying to distinguish how failures in predicting and forecasting are due to receiving noise instead of receiving the proper signal. It is like saying that perceptive investors like George Soros or Warren Buffett are able to distinguish the proper signals and discard the noise to make insightful decisions that make a lot of money.  Therefore distinguishing the proper signal is like accepting what is true and discarding the trivial facts. It is the quest for truth, a bull shit detector, so to speak. In the realm of forecasting, the best method would be to get the consensus from a group of experts; this consensus often comes close to the final outcome. 

Refining one’s mental reasoning and perception is one way to hone the mind, to allow one to receive the right signal. Like Sherlock Holmes, one must develop a ‘global mind’ in order to have a superior deduction method that could solve mind boggling crimes. Hence, distinguishing the signal from the noise is not just a challenge of probabilistic reasoning or forecasting but a frame of mind. For economist like Silver, this would mean gleaning the correct insight from a mass of statistics or data, while perceptive people like Barack Obama or Bill Clinton or any highly smart or perceptive people, who could discern the correct reality underneath the everyday veneer. Hence, one could also do meditation or self-reflection to achieve this frame of mind as compared to a nerd who could find meaning in numbers. The fact that the mathematical abilities of most people are declining especially in the USA as compared to Asian countries like Korea or Singapore make the matter worse.

Silver’s book then is like the work of the Dalia Lama or philosophers like Eckhart Tolle, who provides guidance on correct thinking methods. To control the mind so to speak, so that the person achieve serenity and mental calm. Silver work is the extension toward the field of probability and economics. It is like predicting the probability that a man will have a car crash considering his love of drink and staying late. It is like those truthful saying like ‘a fool and his money is soon parted.’ It is deducting the outcome following logical reasoning of a Sherlock Holmes, but applied in highly complex systems like the weather or economics or political elections where highly linked components work together within a large system, integrated together. Distinguishing the proper signal from this highly complex leviathan is the aim of Silver’s book. For investors, it would be another useful tool to make the right investment decision.